▲ The number of new confirmed cases has increased since July.

Since the end of June, the number of new confirmed cases is increasing because of the delta variant. Based on July 10, the number of new confirmed cases is 1378, which is the largest number in South Korea. It is forecasted that the spread will be continued.

Delta variant was first discovered in India last October 2020. Also, it is one of the Variants of Concern that WHO designates. Delta variant has immune escape ability and high infectivity. This is the combination of E484Q variation which was from the beta which was discovered in South Africa, gamma variant which was discovered in Brazil, and L452R variation which was from the USA. These variations caused 60 percent faster spread velocity than the alpha variant which was discovered in the UK and many severe symptoms which include stomachache, hearing loss, joint pain, and many more. Also, the delta plus variant is discovered recently, and it is much faster than the delta variant.

Because of the infusion of the delta variant, the spread of the virus is increasing. South Korean government announced that the scale of spread will be bigger than another pandemic before. They expected the number of new confirmed cases will be more than 2000. Because the R0 is more than 1.3 because of the delta variant. R0 is the number of secondary infections caused by one person infected with the epidemic. Also, a professor said that the baseline which means the number of infections just before the pandemic is higher than the other pandemic before. This can cause a bigger scale of pandemic. He expected the number of infections can be 2500 if the spread is not dropped.

▲ Expectation of the new confirmed cases from South Korean government

Because of the great spread, the government announced that in the great Seoul area, the highest social distancing becomes effective from July 14. To decrease the spread, people should control the private gatherings themselves. Moreover, they should not go to a play where many people go. Finally, they should follow social distancing in a public area. I hope that the spread will be dropped soon.

2021.07.17

By Taeho Kim